DonAithnen (donaithnen) wrote,

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Stupid math

Prop 8 is currently running 53% for, 47% against, with 35% of the vote counted. That's a margin of about 245,000 votes.

From 14% counted to 35% counted that margin has been shrinking by an average of 2500 votes per percentage point counted. If that rate were to continue until 100% of the vote is counted then 8 would still win by about 83,000 votes, or 50.3% to 49.7%. (Out of a total of about 13 million votes.)

Of course there's no particular reason to assume that the same average rate will continue for the next couple hours, but in any case it seems like it's going to be a long and agonizing process, and i should probably go to bed now before obsessing over it ruins the otherwise incredibly good evening.
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