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05 February 2008 @ 01:09 pm
Surreal moment for the day  
While looking for random political news during lunch i found this article which says "ultra-conservative Ann Coulter is threatening to campaign for Hillary Clinton if John McCain snags the nomination"

That's just bizarre. What's wrong with John McCain from a republican's perspective? And why Clinton rather than Obama? Sure Coulter claims "She's more conservative than he [John McCain] is," but is there really _that_ much difference between Clinton and Obama? (Aside from the whole media censorship thing that is.) Or is Coulter just assuming Clinton will be the opposite number?

Anyways, what i was _trying_ to figure out is why Obama's poll numbers have been going gradually up in California over the past several days. Has there been any specific reason anyone knows about or is it just the vagaries of the voting populace? In any case i'm wondering if it would have actually been better to have the election a little later to let the momentum, if there actually is any, build.

Edit: Actually according to one poll Obama's numbers actually skyrocketed just today. Of course there have been several instances so far where the polls have declared that candidate X had a decisive lead and then turned out to be dead wrong... =/
Beth Leonardbeth_leonard on February 6th, 2008 05:41 am (UTC)
For Obama's numbers, the best I can guess is that there are a lot of independents in CA. Most of them were "undecided" until recently. The independents in CA are largely X-Republicans who don't like to admit to being Republicans at dinner parties and can go either way in any given election.

In CA, independents are only allowed to vote in the democratic primary, the republican party has closed their nomination process to anyone other than registered republicans.

My conjecture is that these people planned to look into it a little closer to the election, and come election time they finally looked at the two democratic candidates and asked themselves which one was more likely to defeat a republican challenger. Until this week they weren't sure if Obama had enough years on him to do the job, or enough experience to have a hope of winning. Given how previous states went, they think he'll have a chance in November. It's rare for CA to make a difference in the primaries.

Personally I'd seen almost no advertising until last week, when lots of "Obama" yard signs started popping up.