November 4th, 2008



It's almost time for results to start pouring in! I'm going to be on IM and on IRC (, channel, uh, donaithnen i guess unless someone suggests something else.) (And the usual DaP channel of course.)

It took me five minutes to vote, going in at 2:55 or 3 :) I spent far longer than that just going over my notes at home and writing down what i wanted to vote on. (I skipped a couple local races/props that i wasn't able to find enough information on and which don't really affect me as a relative transient.)

After that i spent about 30-40 minutes getting dinner :) There's a 98.9% chance i'll be celebrating our victory and a 1.1% chance i'll be trying to drown out our defeat, but either way my diet is blown for today :) (And for that matter, probably for the week after the party. I gained 5 lbs between saturday morning and monday morning =P)


I'm sure they know what they're doing, but with only 1% of the precincts counted and Obama having 55% of the vote in South Carolina and McCain having 45%, they're calling it for McCain. ...wait, what? :)

Edit: Perhaps i should start combining these posts, or some of my friends are going to lynch me :)

Edit 2: And they're calling Maryland for Obama with 0% of the vote counted, Obama is winning 0% to 0% :)


And CNN finally joined the game of calling Ohio for Obama :)

Edit: And CNN has effectively called it for Obama. "I can't see any credible way for McCain to win" or something like that.

Edit 2: "No Republican in history has ever been elected President without Ohio." :)
  • Current Mood
    bouncy bouncy


Looks like FiveThirtyEight is the first to be willing to "go out on a limb" and officially call it for Obama :)

Edit: Obama now has 207 called EVs according to most news sources. If he wins California, Oregon and Washington and _nothing_ else that would put him at 280. Anyone want to calculate the odds that he won't win the west coast? :)

Insult to (mortal) injury

The Daily Show is calling Virginia for Obama. No one else seems to have yet though.

Edit: Actually, Fox has called it too. As jmpava said, if _Fox_ calls something for Obama you have to take it seriously :)

And The Daily Show has also called the election for Obama. :)

YES WE DID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And it's official, more or less. CNN has Obama at 297! :)

That's with California, Oregon and Washington all at once, as expected. As soon as the polls closed i guess :)

Edit: Thank the gods, i've probably heard McCain say "my friends" for the last time. At least when it was all over McCain managed to concede with more class than he was running his campaign with for the past several months.
  • Current Mood
    indescribable indescribable

Not quite all over yet...

Prop 8 is at 53% yes and dropping, at 9.6% reporting. (It was at 58% yes when i first checked, with 5% reporting.)

Prop 4 (the anti-abortion one) is at 50/50, with a 17,441 vote split between the two currently (giving a slight edge to "no" thankfully.)
  • Current Mood
    worried worried


Damn it, the polls were mostly right about the presidential election, so they must be right about Prop 8 too, right? Maybe the districts up in SF are slow in getting their totals together...
  • Current Mood
    worried denial

Stupid math

Prop 8 is currently running 53% for, 47% against, with 35% of the vote counted. That's a margin of about 245,000 votes.

From 14% counted to 35% counted that margin has been shrinking by an average of 2500 votes per percentage point counted. If that rate were to continue until 100% of the vote is counted then 8 would still win by about 83,000 votes, or 50.3% to 49.7%. (Out of a total of about 13 million votes.)

Of course there's no particular reason to assume that the same average rate will continue for the next couple hours, but in any case it seems like it's going to be a long and agonizing process, and i should probably go to bed now before obsessing over it ruins the otherwise incredibly good evening.
  • Current Mood
    disappointed disappointed